Post by blazedoutdave on Mar 4, 2018 9:48:16 GMT -8
Over the past 4 years - I've relied on my movie buff/critic wife to help me with the Oscar picks. Historically, she's predicted the prop winners over 75% of the time. For this year's SFTC props - 3 of the 4 are much easier than years past. Any odds quoted below are from "GoldDerby" which is an excellent odds source to further assist. Here we go:
1. 90th Academy Awards: Will Get Out WIN an Oscar? "Get Out" is nominated for 4 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay.
Best Picture - No. 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is the fave.
Best Actor - No. Gary Oldman in the Darkest Hour is the heavy favorite.
Best Director - No. Del Toro in the Shape of Water is the heavy favorite.
Best Original Screenplay - Yes. Odds are 4/5 for Get Out to win. Next choice is 19/10 for 3 Billboards.
My wife has seen Get Out and it's an excellent picture with plot twists - especially at the very end of the film. It's very well done. She's confident Get Out wins an Oscar.
The issue with this prop (like similar for other past Oscar props) is you will be locked into this one most of the evening. So avoid this one IF you are after some more Oscar greens.
2. 90th Academy Awards: Which FILM will WIN the Oscar for Best Visual Effects? Bladerunner 2049 or Any Other Film.
Bladerunner 2049 is in a near dead-heat with War For The Planet Of The Apes in this category. War odds to win are 21/20 and Blade is 5/4. Star Wars is a distant 22/1 as the next closest competitor. My wife agrees with the Planet of the Apes to win but it's too close to call.
This is for a low streak or a longest streak competitor.
3. Will the Oscar Winners for Best Actor, Actress & Director be from THREE DIFFERENT FILMS? Yes - 3 different or No.
Best Actor - Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour is the heavy favorite at 1/10. Timothy Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name is next best pick at 20/1. No Dunkirk or Shape of Water noms.
Best Actress - Frances McDormand for 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing MO is heavy favorite at 1/10. Saorise Ronan for Lady Bird is next at 25/1. There are no Darkest Hour noms in this category. Shape of Water nom is 3rd fave at 33/1. No Dunkirk or Shape of Water noms.
Best - Director - Del Toro for Shape of Water is heavy favorite at 1/10. Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk is next at 28/1. There are no Darkest Hour noms in this category.
With some competing films not having noms in other categories coupled with the heavy favorites or even the distant 2nd place odd faves pulling an upset - you will still see 3 Different Films winning this. My wife is confident in this.
I will be putting into play with confidence - YES - winners will be from 3 different films.
4. Which FILM will WIN the Oscar for Best Picture? Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri OR Any Other Film? Odds are:
3 Billboards - 11/10
The Shape of Water - 14/5
Get Out - 11/2
Lady Bird - 33/1
Dunkirk - 50/1
Call Me By Your Name - 50/1
Phantom Thread - 80/1
The Post - 100/1
Darkest Hour - 100/1
3 Billboards is up for 7 nominations. The Shape of Water for 13.
We believe 3 Billboards will win but the Shape of Water is close behind. Water has 1/2 of it's noms in lesser categories but if they start winning those earlier Oscars - they may pull the upset.
Basically this comes down to a near even odds fave vs the next closest at 3 1/2 to 1 with the next at 5 1/2 to 1.
IMO put this into play with a low streak/monthly wins for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Long streak - pass.
Lastly, at typing - 4 Oscar props posted. SM may post more. If so, go onto GoldDerby for the odds. I'll be out of town this afternoon/evening and will not be able to update.
To highlight - best Oscar prop of the night is the winner from 3 different films.
Success with your plays!
Dave
1. 90th Academy Awards: Will Get Out WIN an Oscar? "Get Out" is nominated for 4 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay.
Best Picture - No. 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is the fave.
Best Actor - No. Gary Oldman in the Darkest Hour is the heavy favorite.
Best Director - No. Del Toro in the Shape of Water is the heavy favorite.
Best Original Screenplay - Yes. Odds are 4/5 for Get Out to win. Next choice is 19/10 for 3 Billboards.
My wife has seen Get Out and it's an excellent picture with plot twists - especially at the very end of the film. It's very well done. She's confident Get Out wins an Oscar.
The issue with this prop (like similar for other past Oscar props) is you will be locked into this one most of the evening. So avoid this one IF you are after some more Oscar greens.
2. 90th Academy Awards: Which FILM will WIN the Oscar for Best Visual Effects? Bladerunner 2049 or Any Other Film.
Bladerunner 2049 is in a near dead-heat with War For The Planet Of The Apes in this category. War odds to win are 21/20 and Blade is 5/4. Star Wars is a distant 22/1 as the next closest competitor. My wife agrees with the Planet of the Apes to win but it's too close to call.
This is for a low streak or a longest streak competitor.
3. Will the Oscar Winners for Best Actor, Actress & Director be from THREE DIFFERENT FILMS? Yes - 3 different or No.
Best Actor - Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour is the heavy favorite at 1/10. Timothy Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name is next best pick at 20/1. No Dunkirk or Shape of Water noms.
Best Actress - Frances McDormand for 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing MO is heavy favorite at 1/10. Saorise Ronan for Lady Bird is next at 25/1. There are no Darkest Hour noms in this category. Shape of Water nom is 3rd fave at 33/1. No Dunkirk or Shape of Water noms.
Best - Director - Del Toro for Shape of Water is heavy favorite at 1/10. Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk is next at 28/1. There are no Darkest Hour noms in this category.
With some competing films not having noms in other categories coupled with the heavy favorites or even the distant 2nd place odd faves pulling an upset - you will still see 3 Different Films winning this. My wife is confident in this.
I will be putting into play with confidence - YES - winners will be from 3 different films.
4. Which FILM will WIN the Oscar for Best Picture? Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri OR Any Other Film? Odds are:
3 Billboards - 11/10
The Shape of Water - 14/5
Get Out - 11/2
Lady Bird - 33/1
Dunkirk - 50/1
Call Me By Your Name - 50/1
Phantom Thread - 80/1
The Post - 100/1
Darkest Hour - 100/1
3 Billboards is up for 7 nominations. The Shape of Water for 13.
We believe 3 Billboards will win but the Shape of Water is close behind. Water has 1/2 of it's noms in lesser categories but if they start winning those earlier Oscars - they may pull the upset.
Basically this comes down to a near even odds fave vs the next closest at 3 1/2 to 1 with the next at 5 1/2 to 1.
IMO put this into play with a low streak/monthly wins for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. Long streak - pass.
Lastly, at typing - 4 Oscar props posted. SM may post more. If so, go onto GoldDerby for the odds. I'll be out of town this afternoon/evening and will not be able to update.
To highlight - best Oscar prop of the night is the winner from 3 different films.
Success with your plays!
Dave